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| #630926 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:17 PM 10.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 130 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013 A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 1342Z AND 1436Z INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BOTH PASSES SHOWED SEVERAL 45-KT WIND RETRIEVALS...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AT 12 AND 24 HOURS TO 50 KT BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE ANALYZED 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...AND THEIR FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED AS WELL TO REFLECT THE LARGER WIND FIELD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 200 PM AST/1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1730Z 30.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
