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| #631431 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 12.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT BASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 35.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 38.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 43.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
