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| #631633 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 12.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA... BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
