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| #631691 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF... WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
