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| #631743 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SINCE THAT TIME...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT. HOWEVER...A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AT LEAST MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS CLOSED...AND SO GABRIELLE IS BEING HELD AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. THE FORWARD SPEED OF GABRIELLE HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/20. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS A 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT. AFTER THAT...GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 39.1N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 43.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY |
