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| #631752 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER. EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
