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| #631851 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 PM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
