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| #631883 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 13.Sep.2013) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...INGRID STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 95.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. INGRID IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT WEATHER STATION IN VERACRUZ HARBOR RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH...66 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
