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| #631887 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS...A 13/2307Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 37-38 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE MISSING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE STRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH SUB-26C SSTS SHOULD COMBINE TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. HUMBERTO IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW FOR ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SHARPLY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER 28C SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3...WITH HUMBERTO POSSIBLY REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 3/4 AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 24.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 15/0000Z 26.3N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 28.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 30.3N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 32.6N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
