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| #632099 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 14.Sep.2013) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.7W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN BY LATE SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
