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| #632179 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 15.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING... THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE WINDS. INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 22.4N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 23.1N 97.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.1N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
