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| #632394 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 15.Sep.2013) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE TWO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
