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| #633251 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 19.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SPUTTERING THIS MORNING AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERION NEEDED FOR MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TOWARD THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ADDITIONALLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO IN ABOUT A DAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HUMBERTO AS A 30 KT CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATED AT 25 DEGREES AT 5 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS SWEPT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK ENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.8N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 34.2N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 36.8N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA |
