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| #635383 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 29.Sep.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY. MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION OBSCURED THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AND...ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...ALSO INDICATES A LOOPING TRACK. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 27.2N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.3N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 27.3N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 26.9N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 26.7N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 31.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
