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| #635737 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 01.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
