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| #635749 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:35 PM 01.Oct.2013) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
