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| #635798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 01.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS... OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.1N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
