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| #636490 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 AM 05.Oct.2013) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 700 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 ...KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORAWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TERREBONNE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
