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| #636587 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 05.Oct.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 KAREN HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRY AIR AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FOR A TIME...THE CENTER HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A VERY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE SFMR NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO KAREN IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN...WITH PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN KAREN LOSING STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS IN 24 HOURS. AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES... REMNANT LOW STATUS IN EXPECTED IN 36-48 HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THE CENTER OF KAREN LOSES DEFINITION...THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER. THE MOTION OF KAREN CONTINUES TO BE IRREGULAR. AFTER MOVING NEAR 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE STALLED THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS CYCLE...WITH THESE MODELS ALL SHOWING KAREN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THESE MODELS AND SHOWS A TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 28.1N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 28.6N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 29.3N 89.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 29.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 29.7N 84.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
