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#6392 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 PM 28.Aug.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004 ...FRANCES TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRANCES HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST...AS FORECAST...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER JARVINEN |