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| #6397 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 28.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS. FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.3N 53.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 54.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 58.6W 125 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.1N 61.1W 125 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 66.3W 125 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 70.6W 125 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT |
