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| #640566 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 23.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 LORENZO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR... WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME EVEN HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE TEMPORARILY RELAXING WHEN A 200-MB ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER LORENZO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE BEEN SO DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS...AND LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. LORENZO HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND JUST SOUTH OF EAST TODAY. NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT BUILDING OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LORENZO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 29.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 30.8N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 31.8N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 33.1N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
