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| #64114 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 AM 02.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 240/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.6N 40.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.3N 41.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 42.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 43.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
