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| #64230 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 02.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006 ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS. VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.5N 41.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
