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| #64323 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 02.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006 ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED. A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL. ALL I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY. ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH ZETA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.5N 41.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.4N 41.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 42.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 45.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
