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| #6433 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB AND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A MODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY BE INLAND BY THAT TIME. I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT. GASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 32.5N 79.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 33.5N 79.6W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/0600Z 35.0N 79.4W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1800Z 36.7N 78.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/0600Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0600Z 43.0N 66.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE |
