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| #6435 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS APPEARS TO BE HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS ORIENTATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS ARE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.6N 54.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 55.4W 120 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 57.4W 120 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.9N 59.8W 120 KT 48HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 62.3W 120 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 67.3W 120 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.4W 125 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 125 KT |
