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| #64605 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 04.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006 ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
