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| #646110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:05 PM 18.Nov.2013) TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 ...MELLISSA STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 54.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
