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| #646569 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:33 PM 20.Nov.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013 A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND COLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR. NONETHELESS... IT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 38.1N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 39.6N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 41.2N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/1200Z 42.4N 25.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0000Z 42.8N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z 41.0N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
