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| #646681 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:50 AM 21.Nov.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 MELISSA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...AS SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME COLD AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION... BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS PENETRATED THE INNER CORE. MELISSA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17-18 DEGREES CELSIUS LATER TODAY AND THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE CIRCULATION...CAUSING MELISSA TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 28 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 41.1N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 22/1200Z 42.0N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 42.2N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z 41.2N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
