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| #64799 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:17 AM 06.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS. THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT... NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR. GIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.3N 49.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
