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| #64838 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:23 AM 06.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006 ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME 30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
