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| #6484 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:34 PM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 THE HURRICANE IS IN STEADY STATE AND HAS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE REPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A LARGE EYE. BECAUSE THERE IS LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE...THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS UNTIL DIRECT MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY. AT THIS POINT...FRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE OR COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE. AS THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING...FRANCES IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 54.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.8N 56.1W 120 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.0N 61.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 63.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.8N 68.7W 120 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 72.6W 125 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT |
