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| #6543 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:34 PM 29.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 32.4N 71.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 33.5N 72.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 35.6N 73.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 39.0N 72.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL |
