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| #6586 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 29.Aug.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE CONTINUES ON SLOW WESTWARD TRACK... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA ...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 56.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
