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| #6641 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING... AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK... ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 19.3N 58.7W 105 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 19.4N 60.7W 105 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 19.9N 63.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.6N 66.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.8W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 78.5W 115 KT |
