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| #6642 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER A 0947Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 45 TO 50 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THIS MOTION PUTS THE CENTER OVER COLD SSTS BY 12 HOURS AND NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FARILY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT JUST IN CASE THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. THE GFS KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY CENTER UNTIL 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH PROBABLY INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF GASTON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 36.7N 71.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 40.0N 71.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 31/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 01/0000Z 48.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM |
