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| #6695 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:13 PM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF SOME NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION. BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ALLOW FOR A 45 KT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HERMINE MOVES OVER COLD WATER. BUOY 44004 IS ONLY ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE BUOY DOES NOT OBSERVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN HERMINE IS LIKELY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 38.4N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 41.0N 70.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 31/1800Z 46.0N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 01/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH |
