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| #6755 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 HERMINE IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND LOOKS LIKE A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL...A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...BUOY 44004 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 15 FEET AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 35 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE CYCLONE CENTER. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT WIND SPEED. SO THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/24. THIS MOTION IS KEPT UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL ON THE MASSACHUSETTS MAINLAND AND THEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION. THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OF HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 41.1N 71.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 44.1N 68.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 01/0000Z 47.9N 61.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
