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| #6759 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 30.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004 THE LAST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 945 MB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE MOTION IS NOW 280/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GASTON AND HERMINE EXIT THE PICTURE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE....THE GFS...MODELS BEND THE TRACK FRANCES SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS TOWARD NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE UKMET... CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN KEEP FRANCES ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LONG RANGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS FRANCES UP TO 130 KT IN 48 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...TIMING INNER-CORE FLUCTUATIONS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST DAY OR SO IS IMPOSSIBLE... SO ONLY SLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 19.7N 61.4W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 20.1N 63.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 20.9N 66.3W 115 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 21.8N 69.1W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 71.9W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.3W 120 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 120 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W 100 KT...INLAND |
