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| #6823 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 31.Aug.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004 ...CORE OF POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH 135 MPH WINDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST MAARTEN...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA AND GUADELOUPE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES WILL AFFECT THESE ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
