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| #6935 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 31.Aug.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004 ...SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE TRACKED WITH RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DOPPLER RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH... 26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANCES COULD STILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N... 67.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART |
