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| #6937 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 31.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 GASTON IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER 60 DEGREE WATER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EVEN INCREASED A BIT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE WINDS MAY HAVE FALLEN SOME...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE APPARENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS. GASTON IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG OVER SUCH COLD WATER...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT SOME MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/27. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS GASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 41.8N 66.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 43.7N 60.4W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0000Z 46.5N 51.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 51.5N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
