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| #6957 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 01.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GASTON IS MOSTLY EXTRATROPICAL. THERE IS A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE CLOUD SHIELD INDICATING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONVERGING WITH AN UPPER JET. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND BUOY WRYG RECENTLY REPORTED 45 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF GASTON AT 45 KT IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. GASTON IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/30. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON GASTON BEING CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GASTON. FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 42.4N 61.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 01/1800Z 44.3N 55.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 02/0600Z 48.0N 44.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 02/1800Z 50.9N 34.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
