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| #698430 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:16 PM 30.Jun.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission. The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to the coast of the southeastern United States. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical by day 5. Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
