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| #6985 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 1500Z WED SEP 01 2004 AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES... CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 69.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 69.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 69.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA |
