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| #698595 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 01.Jul.2014) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
