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| #698923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 02.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves near the North Carolina coast. Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots, steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
