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| #699189 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 03.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center, and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at 8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65 kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little below the consensus after that time. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end of the period. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan |
